In the 16th and 17th centuries, Europeans believed that somewhere in the New World (the Americas), there was a place of immense wealth known as El Dorado. Throughout history, the concept of El Dorado has been interpreted in very many ways. Today, likely 15 American cities and towns are named El Dorado, and about 20 countries have cities and towns so named.
What is it about El Dorado? It was a 16th Century legend of a flamboyant chief of the ancient Muisca tribe in present-day Colombia, who in a yearly ritual, covered himself in gold dust from head to toe. Spanish conquistadors who had the earliest contact with Muisca from Europe, believed the legend, that the tribal chief ruled over a city of gold, and so called him El Dorado; the golden one.
In the build-up to 2023 Nigerian general elections, as Bola Ahmed Tinubu unveiled his ‘Renewed Hope’ mantra, his disciples went to town to flaunt his credentials, with a promise of El Dorado. Hollywood had produced movies titled El Dorado, while many artistes have used it as inspiration for their music, including the ‘Queen of Latin Music’, Shakira, singer and songwriter of Colombian origin.
In modern usage, El Dorado can represent a place of fabulous wealth or vast opportunities, a symbol of ultimate happiness or fulfillment, an aspiration or a highly sought-after goal. On the flip side, it can be a mythical or unattainable dream, a fleeting hope or wishful thinking, a coveted but elusive treasure. In one word, a mirage! The interpretation depends on the context. BATists, as Tinubu’s supporters are known, told anyone who cared to listen that he has a track record no other contestants could match. And, of course, the four most prominent aspirants then, namely Abubakar Atiku, Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso, Peter Obi, and Tinubu himself, have had equal opportunities of eight years each, to showcase their talents and demonstrate their competencies in executive capacities; and Tinubu towers far above every one; the ‘Renewed Hope’ gang chorused. His campaigners had declared that, if only people knew better, Nigerians should simply ask Tinubu to assume the office of the president, without going through the rigours of campaign and election. However, campaigns ran and elections held eventually, and Tinubu won.
Now, over a year on Tinubu’s watch, perspectives on his presidency are like two sides of a coin, albeit with sharp contrasts and wide differences. While Nigerians cope with skyrocketing cost, side-by-side with nosediving standard of living, people on Tinubu’s side will argue that Mr. President is on track, building from the ruins of the past, a better Nigeria of a foreseeable future. They will tell you there’s no gain without pain, that what Nigeria is going through is but a phase. And it will pass by soon. But those not favourably disposed, the labour unions, the opposition parties, and their sympathisers will not hesitate to fault the president’s policies. In print, on radio and TV, online and social media, they criticize the president daily, emphasizing he has pushed more Nigerians below the poverty line.
Governor Bala Abdulkadir Mohammed of Bauchi State, for instance, is a fanatical Tinubu critic. Even, there has been #EndBadGovernance protest curiously touted on hunger and economic hardship due to Tinubu’s policies; albeit with certain demands out of sync with the economy. At any rate, Nigerians are eagerly waiting to see the end of the journey. Tinubu’s apostles will tell you that even though it takes time for policies to mature, the president has a ‘long’ list of achievements so soon, starting with foreign reserves raised from $34 to $37 billion within a year, $7 billion forex backlog cleared, debt to revenue ratio down to 64 from 97 percent, ways and means debt down to N14 trillion from N27 trillion. N200 billion support fund for SMEs, N150 billion investment in CNG for mass transit; N75 billion intervention fund for the manufacturing sector, the N50 billion education loan fund. Also, N40 trillion infrastructure fund for key national projects, including Lagos-Calabar and Badagry-Sokoto highways; and N3 trillion economy stability fund. They will mention consumer credit scheme meant to empower Nigerians access funds for goods or services, ahead of earnings, the number of taxes from federal, state and local government reduced from 52 to 10 altogether, and so on.
However, how does the above listed translate to instant relief for the ordinary Nigerians, the way subsidy removal translated instantly to hardship for them, with the immediate jump in the pump price of petrol, and the ripple effect on cost of transportation, cost of market products, particularly food items, since over a year? Add also, the biting effect of Naira floatation on import and foreign exchange. What of the breakneck electricity tariffs? And it took the organised labour over a year fighting to get the minimum wage raised from 30 thousand naira to 70 thousand naira. Mind you, this is not an argument for the return of petrol subsidy, or reversal of Naira floatation. Rather, it is a scrutiny of how well prepared President Tinubu was for the outcome of his policies, since he knew what he had in mind. And he had three months at least, after his election, to think it through. Besides, he has been scheming so long to become the number one citizen.
Fifteen months after the pump price of petrol was jacked up, Mr. President commissioned 30 Hybrid Power CNG buses donated by Depots and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPPMAN) and NNPC. And the government itself bought another 70, making 100 buses in all for mass transportation in Abuja metropolis. Meanwhile, the presidential CNG initiative launched an app that makes transition into CNG easy for Nigerians. The app, available on Google Play and Apple Stores, provides users with real time information on conversion centres close to them, it helps to book appointment, get discounts on purchases and provide updates on fuel prices. Moreover, the government is giving incentives to app-based on-demand taxi drivers, the likes of Uber, with the RideShare CNG Conversion Incentive Programme which lets them convert their cars at a discount. But how far can 100 buses go in Abuja, how soon will more such buses roll out for the rest of the country, and how soon will enough vehicles, private and commercial, be converted to make an impact?
As presidential candidate, Tinubu was one who had a state governor and the house of assembly at his beck and call, which put him at advantage to have used Lagos to demonstrate his CNG magic, at least one year pre-election. Suppose the cost of transportation had fallen significantly in Lagos, from January 2022 and it had positively affected the cost of market products, particularly food items, perhaps ordinary people would have clamoured for petrol subsidy removal themselves, realising they will save a lot of money on fuel in the long run. So much for hypothesis. In reality, issues currently on ground against CNG include upfront conversion costs, as data puts converting 1.6-litre petrol engine vehicle between N300,000 and N400,000 depending on its condition. Also, limited availability of re-filling points even in big cities, not to talk of towns, villages and inter-state roads. Meanwhile, CNG has lower energy density than gasoline, making CNG vehicles have limited range, which means they will need to refuel more frequently over multiple trips or long journeys.
The economic and political history of Nigeria did not start with Tinubu. However, as the incumbent president, now writing his own chapter, his politics, proactiveness, and body language will determine how much success he will record with his policies and reforms. Fortunately, he has four predecessors to look at, compare and contrast from 1999 to date. He can examine what made one, more, or less popular. For instance, Nigerians would keep praising President Yar’Adua who was open enough to declare his assets publicly, and even talked about making everyone in his government do so, as a means to curbing corruption. The same Yar’Adua admitted openly that the election which made him president, conducted by Obasanjo, was fraught with irregularities. And he was talking of reforms in many areas, just before ill health got the better of him and death eventually took him away. The Tinubu presidency has a semblance of conflicting interpretations of El Dorado yet. There’s a symbol of hope and fulfillment, as there’s a sign of illusion and mirage. The endpoint will, however, situate the true picture. On the side of hope, Nigeria Education Loan Fund expands opportunities and charts the path to fulfillment for hitherto helpless students. With N2 billion so far disbursed to six federal universities, as the University of Ibadan has confirmed the receipt of N201 million school fees for 1,370 students, and 22 state-owned institutions approved, there’s hope anew for higher education!
On food security, government has deployed army personnel and civil defence corps, to safeguard farmlands and protect farmers from banditry across northern states. On power, government has stopped Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Company Plc., hitherto buying and reselling electricity as middlemen, to let generating and distributing companies interface directly. Probably, the move has resulted in steadier and more predictable supply in parts of the country, being widely discussed on social media. And hopefully, it will enable lower tariffs eventually. To mention but a few. On the other side, high conversion cost from petrol to CNG deters the president’s alternative, while fuel stations continually shut down as depots battle fuel shortage, and petrol scarcity bites harder nationwide.
NNPC has given dates to flood the market with locally refined PMS and failed, many times over. And even after the president has issued a directive to NNPC to sell crude to local refineries, denominated in Naira, starting with Dangote, it appears Dangote is still having problems sourcing crude to refine for the local market. At the ports, stakeholders cry of multiple charges, whereas government has streamlined the number of taxes across board. ASUU joined the voices demanding the reversal of power tariffs hike, that varsities’ bills have jumped by 300%. Even though, government has promised subsidy for universities and hospitals, otherwise, debts will make the Discos cut off the campuses and it will lead to crisis; thereby taking the shine off the credence of education loan.
The Naira floatation policy spurred high volatility of the FX market, letting the banking sector make excessive profits in 2023 business year. And when government talks of windfall tax, industry players and analysts differ on long-term economic impact of it. The positive side proponents argue it will provide the government with additional revenue for public services and social programmes. And the opposing views hold that windfall tax adds another layer of financial strain, with concerns about double taxation, which can discourage future investors, especially foreign investors, since banks have already paid a 30% income tax on the entire profits in the 2024 tax returns. Either way, the Nigerian majority, especially the masses, has been made to bear the brunt of a policy which, for all its benefits, unduly gave room to few individuals to make stupendous money. Frankly, the president has work to do to make his work show radiantly, on his ‘$1 trillion-economy’ vision. He has to keenly follow up on the yields of his policies; to ensure that the gains, when they start coming; get to the ordinary Nigerians.
President Tinubu should know that ordinary Nigerians pay higher price for his reforms than the elite, as it were. Take for instance, NBS figures show that, of the total sum of N2.32 trillion FAAC allocations shared by the federal, state and local governments for June 2024, revenue from VAT was N497.66 billion, with N15.78 billion from Electronic Money Transfer Levy, paid by citizens as individuals and businesses pan-Nigeria. Yes, both the masses and the elite paid the VAT and levy, and even the elite pay high income tax, pay company tax, tariffs and duties. In comparison, however, a good number of the elite make big money from the government, or the system, or from other crops of the elite who make money from the government, or the system; whereas it is not so for ordinary, helpless Nigerians. They toil to live! Whether self-employed or on waged job. So, here comes the question on cost of governance, state of the economy and the plight of the common man, where the masses, the low-income earners, the regular citizens, the ordinary Nigerians always hold the short end of the stick.
The president should exhibit in his body language that he is aware certain Nigerians, and in their millions, cannot feed their families if they don’t go out to toil daily. That some people trek not less than 2 kilometres every day, both in urban and rural areas, to earn their daily bread. That some school children trek long distances in scorching sun, forth and back every week day. That some people work hard, but live in shanties, for no faults of their own, as life just happened to them. Mr. President should not see Nigeria only through the prism of people in his league, those who make money from the government or the system, or the privileged few who live in state houses, eat free food, drink choice wines, and enjoy luxurious perks, all provided with public funds. Often times, it is sad seeing the glib disposition of people in positions of power. Godswill Akpabio for instance, the flippant number three citizen who talks facetiously, often making fun of critical issues bothering a larger percentage of the citizenry. The way Nigeria works, if costs of production fall across board tomorrow, prices of goods may still remain high, unless someone somewhere raises the dust. And only the federal government can do that. But if they sleep on it, Nigerians will simply miss out or only benefit very little from the expected gains of the tough policies they have so much endured.
On the impact of his interventions, such as 150-day duty-free import window for food commodities, reduction in number of taxes, support fund for SMEs and fund for the manufacturing sector, Mr. President needs a team on ground, to continually do cost analysis of products from raw materials to finished goods, from factory to consumer or end-user, and from importation to the retailer’s shelf, in order to determine reasonable market prices, or else arbitrary pricing and profiteering at the expense of the people will subsist. Even at the government level, while government at the centre under the president, drives the macro-economic vision, states and local governments are significant stakeholders. However, many still pretend as if the solution to all of Nigeria’s problems is only found in Abuja; even now that they have more funds to work with. For instance, after tedious negotiations, and government and the organised private sector and labour have arrived at N70,000 national minimum wage, some state governors, Gombe for example, still whimper they cannot afford to pay.
In the aftermath of #EndBadGovernance protest, the minister of industry, trade and investments, Dr. Doris Nkiruka Uzoka-Anite, came out to tell Nigerians that the country lost N500 billion to the unrest. Too bad! But in like manner, would Madam Minister engage the people to explain how Mr. President’s policies have fared on the economy so far? The N75 billion intervention fund for the manufacturing sector, the N200 billion support fund for SMEs, the N3 trillion economy stability fund, the consumer credit scheme, the number of taxes reduced from 52 percent to10 percent and so on. On his part, the president must make sure his intervention and support funds do not end up as sheer statistics, or mere figures on paper. Mr. President should beware of the elite who could sabotage him and divert the gains of his policies, among whom are civil servants, industry players, the banking sector and so on.
Nigerians want to physically see how the president’s policies they endured will impact on the economy, or if not yet, how they will, with a timeframe of when it will start reflecting on the prices of goods in the market, the only indices by which the ordinary people tell how the economy is performing. As minister of industry, trade and investments, Dr. Uzoka-Anite profile says, she is a financial analyst, even though she trained first as a medical doctor. To function optimally, a typical office holder should be a round peg in a round hole. This applies to all of Mr. President’s men and women driving his policies, each one is expected to be a round peg in a round hole, or a square peg in a square hole. Nothing else! While some of them have somewhat stood out in their performance, making good impression on Nigerians, people are asking after the others, whether or not they are still in their jobs.
After all, one of the selling-points for Mr. President prior to the election is, reputation as a prime talent scout, with sharp eyes for brilliance and keen nose for competence. In a nutshell, remarkable capacity to assemble world-class brains to work in his team. Or…?
Keep in touch… keep connecting the dots.
